Allwyn Lottery Forecasts Kept Secret by UKGC
Regulator cites commercial interests and confidentiality in refusing to release National Lottery operator's bid details and Good Causes projections.
The UK Gambling Commission has refused to release Allwyn's National Lottery bid proposals and Good Causes forecasts, citing commercial sensitivity and confidentiality. The decision prevents public scrutiny of the performance targets Allwyn committed to when winning the lucrative ten-year licence.
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UKGC Blocks Release of Allwyn's Lottery Bid Details
The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has refused to release key documents detailing Allwyn's successful bid for the fourth National Lottery licence, including its crucial forecasts for contributions to Good Causes. In a response to a Freedom of Information (FOI) request dated 11 February 2025, the regulator confirmed it holds the information but is withholding it entirely.
Why This Matters
Transparency around the National Lottery licence is a significant consumer protection issue. The operator's performance is primarily judged on its ability to maximise returns for Good Causes, the core public benefit of the lottery. The withheld documents contain the specific promises and financial projections Allwyn made to win the contract. Without access to these original forecasts, it is impossible for the public or independent bodies to scrutinise whether the operator is meeting the targets it set for itself during the competitive bidding process.
This refusal limits public oversight and means consumers must rely solely on the UKGC's assurances that Allwyn is performing as expected.
Details of the Refusal
The FOI request asked for three categories of information:
- Allwyn's Good Causes Contribution forecast reports.
- Allwyn's Forecasting Methodology Assurance reports.
- All copies of Allwyn's bid proposals.
The UKGC denied the request by applying two exemptions from the Freedom of Information Act 2000.
Section 41: Information provided in confidence The Commission argued that Allwyn provided the information with the expectation it would remain confidential. The UKGC stated that disclosing it would constitute a breach of confidence and that the public interest in preserving this confidentiality outweighs the interest in disclosure. It warned that releasing such information could fetter its ability to regulate, as operators might become less willing to share sensitive data.
Section 43: Commercial interests The regulator also cited the protection of commercial interests. It deemed the forecast reports and bid proposals to be "trade secrets" under Section 43(1). The UKGC stated that disclosure could reveal sales data and commercial strategies, which could be used by competitors and harm Allwyn's ability to meet its Good Causes targets. The Commission concluded that the public interest in protecting the commercial viability of the National Lottery was greater than the public interest in transparency.
Significance for the Industry
This decision underscores the inherent tension between commercial confidentiality and public accountability in the management of the National Lottery. By classifying Allwyn's bid proposals and performance forecasts as trade secrets, the UKGC has established a high barrier to public scrutiny for the duration of the ten-year licence.
While the Commission stated that it has published information to ensure the transparency of the competition process, this refusal means the specific benchmarks for success remain secret. Accountability for the performance of the National Lottery and its contributions to society now rests entirely behind the closed doors of the regulator and the operator, limiting the potential for independent analysis and oversight.